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WEBMISTRESS speculates:
Stevie has said the guy giving her advice in the song is Tom Petty (see the audio commentary below), and I imagine the title is a subtle reference to the Petty/Nicks duet Insider's "hard promises". The only problem is that Stevie has a bad habit of using "he" and "you" in the song to apply to both Tom, the man who she's trying to get over, and herself - and guessing who is who can be quite challenging.
Regarding Tom, Stevie says in her audio commentary:
"Hard Advice was written for Tom Petty, and it's just about a serious sit-down talk he had with me that I really listed to and really had an effect on me because he's a really dear friend of mine also. Tom can be thisclose to harsh. You don't really want to mess with Tom. You're not sure if he might have a little pen knife in his shoe. You never know with him. When he tells you something, you listen. I have the greatest respect for him and his advice and his thoughts on things. He has an opinion, and if I ask him for it, he gives it to me. The real song says, 'Sometimes Tom's my best friend.' I took the 'Tom' part out because I knew he would actually not want me to put the focus on him. So it did say 'Sometimes Tom's my best friend'. So I just left it at 'Sometimes he's my best friend'. And when it says 'even when he's not around' - because I don't see Tom all the time - 'But the sound of his voice, well, it follows me down and reminds me' of what's right and what's wrong. And I love it for the fact that he was able to just give me such a good talking-to that it pulled me out a hole."
Now, who's the other guy? Here's my take: the song was written in either 1994 or 1995. I'm pretty sure the man she's getting over is one of the Eagles she had a relationsip with, either Don Henley or Joe Walsh, because of the line "get over it" which was their hit song from 1994's Hell Freezes Over. It was played on the radio quite a bit, as were their old hits. Also, at that time, there were a lot of cardboard cut-outs of the band in record stores to promote their "resumption." (I know she says "doll" and not "cut-out," but has anyone ever actually seen a literal life-size paper doll in a record store? How would that even be logistically viable?)
I'm leaning towards Joe Walsh, since he's made the cut of "great loves" and Don hasn't. Plus, by the 90s, her romantic relationship with Don had been over for quite a while. The breakup with Joe was in the mid-80s.
I'm with Tom, especially the part where he tells her not to buy any life-size cardboard cut outs. I mean, what was she going to do with that "doll" anyway? Tuck it under the covers next to her in bed and kiss it goodnight? NO, just NO. That's ALL WRONG for sure!